The U.S. housing market just experienced one of its worst months in history. Pending home sales plunged to their lowest level on record in September 2026, while homebuilder sentiment collapsed to a 14-year low. And these warning signs suggest the housing downturn could get significantly worse heading into 2027.
According to the National Association of Realtors, the pending home sales index fell to just 66, down 7% month over month and 11% year over year. Contract signings are now approximately 50% below their pandemic peak and 35% to 40% below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, homebuilder sentiment has fallen to just 29 out of 100, comparable to levels seen during the aftermath of the 2008 housing crash.
But something unusual is happening. While much of the country is experiencing weakening demand and rising inventory, wealthy housing markets around New York City, San Francisco, and Chicago are continuing to see strong home price growth.
I’m touring Eastchester in Westchester County, New York, where home values have increased approximately 9.5% over the last year. Some homes are renting for $8,000 to $10,000 per month, supporting prices that remain out of reach for most Americans.
In this video, I break down:
• Why pending home sales have fallen to their lowest level on record
• The 14-year collapse in homebuilder confidence and what it means for 2027
• Why Westchester County, San Francisco, and Chicago are defying the national housing downturn
• How rental prices help explain why certain expensive housing markets continue appreciating
• Why Tennessee, Colorado, and Washington now have some of the largest inventory surpluses
• How Federal Reserve interest rate decisions could worsen an already struggling housing market
• Where buyers may have the greatest negotiating power heading into 2027
Nationally, housing inventory reached approximately 1.2 million active listings in September 2026, more than double pandemic-era lows. But supply varies dramatically by region. The South and West are experiencing some of their highest inventory levels in a decade, while the Northeast and Midwest remain much tighter.
This is creating a deeply divided housing market. Areas with excess construction, weakening sales, and rising inventory face greater price pressure, while established, supply-constrained neighborhoods near major employment centers continue outperforming.
Using Reventure App, I examine home price forecasts, inventory surpluses, sales deficits, and our new rent-based overvaluation data to show why some markets could experience significant price declines while others continue appreciating.
If you’re planning to buy, sell, or invest in real estate in 2027, understanding your local market is more important than ever.
Explore housing forecasts and market trends on Reventure App: https://www.reventure.app
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DISCLAIMER: This video content is intended only for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes. Neither Reventure Consulting, Reventure App, or Nicholas Gerli are registered financial advisors. Your use of Reventure Consulting’s YouTube channel, along with Reventure App’s data, and your reliance on any information on the channel is solely at your own risk. Moreover, the use of the Internet (including, but not limited to, YouTube, E-Mail, and Instagram) for communications with Reventure Consulting or Reventure App does not establish a formal business relationship.