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Last year at this time we were in the third of three weeks where home prices dropped in the first pandemic lockdowns. So the year over year comparisons are super strong and I’ll show you some of that today.
It’s Monday April 12, 2021 and this is your weekly look at the latest Altos Research data that came in over the weekend for the entire US real estate market. Each week Altos tracks every home for sale in the entire US. Pricing, changes in pricing, supply and demand so that you can see the trends in the US housing market far before it becomes available through the traditional media channels.
If you missed our webinar last week, the replay is now available on the Altos Research Youtube channel. Lots more data, lots of local markets. By the way if you’re looking for your local data and you don’t see it in the webinar, you can always go to AltosResearch.com and run a report for your zip code.
Median single family home price in the US this week is $375,000, that’s up over 15% from last year when we where in the third and final week of the pandemic lock down retraction before prices started marching up for the rest of the year. In this chart you can see each year’s seasonal curve in prices. Normally prices peak June 30th. Last year they kept climbing into September. We’ll be back on a much more seasonal pattern this year in fact prices ticked up only $1000 from last week. This shows some signs that prices are stabilizing somewhat. As I like to point out, any signals this year of the market mellowing out is encouraging to me. When it’s too crazy it’s not a good market for buyers and even sellers. A little less nuts is a good thing. None of these signals are bearish. There’s no bubble pop or anything. Just some good seasonal trends as we resume some normalcy.
You can see it in the leading indicator price of the new listings too. Because this data leads the overall market, normally it peaks in May a month before home prices in general. The price of the newly listed homes has been at this $350,000 plateau for three weeks now. Compared to $299,700 last year at this time. By staying elevated all year last year, this leading indicator really illustrated how crazy Q1 of 2021 was going to be. Since we’re back on school schedules, the seasonal pattern will be much more normal this year too.
As for active unsold inventory. Total single family homes available ticked down this week to 307,000. We haven’t reached the trough here yet. There is so much pent up demand that we’re not going to get material increases in inventory for the foreseeable future. I’m just hoping for a little uptick in maybe April or May?
Here’s the view I introduced last week – immediate sales. Each week in addition to the active inventory, another 25,000 or so single family homes are getting listed, taking offers, and going into contract in hours or days, essentially bypassing the active market data because they’re already sold. This is so wild to me. Essentially 25% of the market is sold immediately. Another 35-40% is going in just one week. And while prices have stabilized somewhat, this indicator has not. Americans are buying everything as fast as they can. Q2 is normally the highest demand time of the year. So the thing to watch here is when the new listings per week starts climbing and the immediate sales shrinks a little as a percentage. As we approach the end of Q2, then this will show the inventory building just a little. Again resuming normal seasonality. Fingers Crossed.
That’s all the data we have time for this week. As always subscribe to the YouTube channel for the data. If you’re a real estate professional, and you work with buyers and sellers and especially right now if you have people worried about the timing – should I wait, should I hurry? I recommend you go right now to AltosResearch.com, and just book a demo with us. We’ll show you how you can use the data to really help people in this crazy market.
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